Real-Life Decision Making
Forecasting avalanches is not an exact science. Decisions must be made according to observation and gut instinct. That's one of the things about the job that you enjoy the most.
There are many factors in determining the hazards that contribute to an avalanche. You must always be on your toes. Today is no exception.
Spring is just around the corner, and temperatures are creeping back up. And when temperatures rise, snow starts to melt.
Snow, especially in areas that aren't usually traveled by people, layers as it falls. Many factors can contribute to the stability of a layer of snow. For example, when temperatures warm up, the snow melts slightly on the top before it cools off enough to freeze it again. Then when temperatures drop, a layer of ice is formed.
If snow is blowing, the layers may be thinner or thicker in some spots.
Today, you've got a combination of warmer temperatures and a cold gusting wind. The wind at times is gusting enough to cause unstable snow to shift under the pressure.
As you're making your observations about potential danger spots, you notice that one area has shifted slightly, moving almost as an ice floe would -- slowly and deliberately. The shift worries you, because it makes the potential for an avalanche even higher. It's just a matter of when.
This area isn't heavily traveled. But you know that occasionally, people ski or hike through the area. With the avalanche hazard, you're worried those people might find themselves in the wrong place at the wrong time.
You have to decide whether to create a controlled avalanche. A controlled avalanche is where you detonate an explosive charge to cause the avalanche under controlled conditions. Or should you wait, post a warning and let nature takes its course?
If you create a controlled avalanche, you'll have to close down the area. You believe the avalanche isn't going to happen until sometime during the night hours -- when no one is around. However, if it turns out that you're wrong, and the avalanche happens during the day, there could possibly be people in the area who are in danger.
If you decide to let nature take its course, it's possible the skiers or hikers will be in harm's way when the snow finally lets go and the avalanche happens.
What do you do?