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Real-Life Decision Making

You are an established jockey at a seasonal track. But opportunity is knocking at your door: you have the chance to race in California, where the tracks are open year-round. You would make a lot more money if you were an established jockey at a year-round track.

The problem is, you'd have to race in California for at least a year without making much money before you could "break in" and start making better money. On top of that, there's no guarantee you'd get steady work after spending that first year there. On the other hand, the investment and the move could really be worth it if you get steady, year-round work. You're already doing fine here and you have a good reputation. What do you do? Do you take a chance and move to California, or stay where you are?