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Fashion Trend Forecaster

Interviews

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Do trend forecasters really know what the next big hit will be?

"I tell them I don't know," says Jayne Mountford. She is a fashion forecaster in New York. "And they say, 'But you're a trend forecaster, you're supposed to know.'"

There's a difference between predicting that something will be popular and knowing it will become a huge consumer hit. "You can track trends, but you can't predict what's going to be a fad," she says. "I can't tell you what the next big thing is going to be."

As far as trends go, Mountford earns a living predicting the sorts of clothing people will want to wear in the future.

So how exactly did Mountford know this? She says that understanding socio-economic conditions is key to trend forecasting. "You have to start by looking at socio-economic trends," she says.

Socio-economics is the study of anything concerned with the interaction of social and economic factors. For example, this could mean studying how education levels or income levels affect consumer choice.

Forecasters conduct surveys and polls to find out what consumers are purchasing and may want to purchase in the future. But even after all these facts and statistics have been gathered and analyzed, someone still has to make a decision on what they really think people will want to wear.

"The thing about fashion forecasting is that sooner or later, it's going to come down to subjective opinion," says Mountford. "You have to predict trends in a qualitative way and eyeball a number of different things. You have to grasp the information to determine trends of the time."

Wendy Carmona is a fashion forecaster in Los Angeles. She says that computers and the Internet are helping forecasters judge people's choices and fashion trends. "I visit many websites, such as one put up by a teenager that reviews fashion trends," she says. "It helps me keep in touch much faster."

Carmona says that the computer has also sped up the pace at which forecasters have to work. "Soon after all the runway shows, the images are e-mailed to people and are available to the general public on the Internet," she says.

"We have to get that information even faster, before it's seen by the public," she says. Instead of sending clients sketches of fashion trends every few months, forecasters are now sending sketches every week. "Everything is faster. Once the client has the sketches, they can quickly alter them and get into production."

Cosimo Agostino is a fashion instructor. He says that many of the trends are still set in Europe and large American cities. "The trends are set by big name designers and manufacturers in Milan, New York, [and] Los Angeles," he says.

Of course, someone has to wade through the fashions seen on the runways to figure out what ordinary people will want to wear. "Forecasters follow the same patterns, looking for what will appeal to specific consumers and local markets."

Agostino says that many of the people working in this industry are women. "In my class, there are two or three men out of a total of 44 students." But he says this isn't because it's an industry only for women.

"It's partly a local thing," he says. "If you go to Europe, you'll find a lot more men. When I was learning in Italy, the class was all male."

Agostino encourages anyone who has a real passion for fashion to enter the industry. "For many, these courses are part of a life learning experience and a fulfillment of students' dreams," he says.

As the economy goes global, people are becoming more aware of the need for trend forecasters. Mountford likens her job to a financial advisor working on the stock exchange. "These people are dealing with huge amounts of money and want to be able to predict how different stocks will do."

As fashion becomes a bigger and bigger industry, people will be interested in predicting trends. "It's absolutely essential," says Mountford.

She also says she would recommend the work to others who enjoy fashion and working with people. "The most rewarding aspect of the job is meeting other people. If you don't enjoy that, you won't enjoy this work. This isn't for the shy, retiring type.

"Our company has clients in many different markets, and so I meet people from many different industries," she adds. "It's a tremendous career."